Grim's Grim Observations

Grim has observations.  First, he observes that Nikki Haley was stupid in her Civil War response.  FWIW, I think that finishes Ms. Haley as a candidate.  We'll see.

Next, he observes about the Civil War.

...Lincoln's election was, I think, definitely the cause of secession -- at least, the first wave of secession, which was only seven states in the Deep South. I don't think it was the proximate cause of the war. As he was inaugurated he was escorted by both cavalry and infantry, with sharpshooters covering his approach. A similar scene followed the election in 2020, when the government similarly deployed a large military force to protect itself against assumed violence (which in fact never appeared, neither in 1861 nor 2021). 

This did not necessarily mean that war was inevitable. Lincoln's inaugural address promised not "to interfere with the institution of slavery in the States where it exists. I believe I have no lawful right to do so, and I have no inclination to do so." If slavery was the cause of the war simpliciter, you might then say that this should have prevented violence from springing out. It might have given a window for negotiating a new vision with the Southern states that did not leave the Union, which if it had succeeded might have eventually persuaded the seven that did to return. 

 

Yet war followed very quickly....

Yah, Ft. Sumter and all that.   Shooting, siezures, more shooting.....and then horrific numbers of dead and wounded.

Why?

 ...There are two other answers to the question of the proximate cause that occur to me. The first one is the general collapse of trust in the government under Lincoln to obey the Constitution. Southern states had moved to seize armories with their state militias, as they no longer believed the Federal government would respect their Second Amendment right to maintain armed militias. If they had trusted the courts to protect their rights, or had trusted Lincoln not to violate their rights, this might not have occurred....

 Hmmmmm.

You should read the rest.  Grim's fam has been in the South since the early 1700's (or so.)  He's not merely spitballing.