While Scott Ritter has "re-evaluated" his prediction of doom for Ukraine, other sources demonstrate that he was right in his first estimation.
...the tactical situation at the eastern frontline has changed after Russian forces broke through the heavily fortified frontline.... the Russian army went forward along the H-32 road, broke through the
line in the direction of Propasna and took the town. It has since
extended the bulge by taking several villages to the north, west and
south....
This breakthrough gives the chance to roll up the Ukrainian
fortifications along the frontline through flank attacks or from behind.
By cutting the supply lines of the Ukrainian troops to the north and
south envelopes can be created which will eventual lead to cauldrons
with no way out for the Ukrainian troops.
This is especially dangerous for the several thousand soldiers north
of the bulge which currently defend the cities of Sieverodonetsk and
Lysychansk in the north eastern part of the upper bubble....
(Maps are at the link.)
Some will argue that this is Russkie Propaganda--as though the London Daily Mail 'reporting' is not MI-6 propaganda.
On the other hand, why did Lloyd Austin call Russia on May 13 and ask for a cease-fire? Why was there a follow-up call initiated by Milley just last Thursday? Hmmmmm?
As noted below, the Atlantic now speaks of negotiations and (not-really-separately,) the NYTimes agrees, without stating it so bluntly.
...The gasoline and diesel scarcity in Ukraine is currently having
severe impacts. Even the Ukrainian military is now rationing its fuel.
Since about six weeks ago Russia has systematically attacked refineries
and fuel storage sites in Ukraine. It also disabled railroad bridges
along the lines that brought fuel from Moldova and Romania.
At the same time the Ukrainian government had held up price
regulations for fuel. The consumer sale prices for diesel and gasoline
were fixed. The cost of fuel brought in by private trucks from Poland
exceeded the price gas station owners could ask for. In consequence gas
stations ran dry as their owners refrained from purchasing new fuel.
Three days ago the Zelensky regime in Kiev finally ended the fuel price control...
Huh. The Daily Mail didn't mention that, nor did Ritter? Gee.
...In total the social-economic situation for Ukraine is catastrophic.
The military situation is even worse. Mariupol has fallen and Russian
troops working there will soon be able to go elsewhere. The Propasna
bulge is threatening to envelope the whole northern frontline together
with the core of the Ukrainian army.
[This is the factor that really counts. If Zelenskiy loses 'the people,' he is finished and will have to evacuate to his mansion(s) in the West.]
..There is no more talk of the Ukrainian army 'winning' like in Kiev or
Karkov where the Russian troops retreated in good order after finishing
their task of holding Ukrainian forces in place.
The Ukrainian command has sent several territorial brigades to the
front lines. These units were supposed to defend their home towns. They
consist of middle age men drafted into service. They have little
fighting experience and lack heavy weapons. Several of these units have
published videos saying they were giving up. They are lamenting that
their commanders left them when their situation became critical.
That the Ukrainian army is now using such units as cannon fodder shows that it has only few reserves left.
Weapons that come in from the 'west' have difficulties reaching the
front lines and had so far very little effect. They amount to drops of
water on a hot plate....
Forty Billion USD and not a damn thing to show for it, except in the P&L of Raytheon, Boeing, Oshkosh Truck and United Technologies.
That's your Congress!
