Thursday, October 17, 2024

The Growing Real Estate Problem

This is not surprising at all.

The extent to which demand for existing homes has collapsed and remains collapsed is astounding, but ultimately not surprising: Demand plunged in 2022 when mortgage rates soared, and plunged a lot further in 2023 as mortgage rates continued to rise to almost 8% by October 2023. But then as mortgage rates dropped starting in November, and kept dropping in 2024, demand stayed at these collapsed levels through September, despite mortgage rates having dropped to near 6%. And now that mortgage rates have bounced off the September lows since the rate cut, demand has collapsed further, even as inventories have been rising all year (look below the article at the top of the comments for inventory and supply charts of existing homes and new houses).

And everyone knows why: Prices are too high. 

An acquaintance put his home up for sale several months ago.  He acknowledged that he had priced it slightly above market, but insisted that he 'would get his price' no matter.

We see the "For Sale/FSBO" sign several times a week.

That merry-go-round had to stop sometimeAnd it finally did.

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