Tuesday, December 19, 2017

Why Trump's Strategy May Fail

On the whole, Trump's national strategy (yesterday's speech) was regarded as GREAT, except by the usual ninnies and nannies, mostly (D), some (R), peppered with a boatload of Communists.

But it may not work.  Why not?

Lyman Stone, an economist at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, writes at Medium about what he’s calling “the great baby bust of 2017.”

The latest official estimate—taken from two-year-old data—puts the U.S. fertility rate at 1.84. In other words, the average American woman will have just under two children in her lifetime. This is well below the replacement rate, or the average number of children necessary to keep a country’s population from declining.

Actually, it's worse.

...Using monthly birth data from 2016 and 2017, he suggests the birth rate in America has plummeted to somewhere near 1.77 births on average. His graph of American fertility since 2008 looks like a double diamond ski slope.

Millennials—who right now are in their prime childbearing years—are the ones mainly driving this downhill trend

Japan, Italy, and Germany will soon cease to exist as nations due to the No Baby problem.  The USA will dodder along for longer, but only because of immigration, whether legal or not.  Of course, immigration has problems, too, beginning with assimilation.


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