Thursday, April 27, 2023

Looks Like Stagflation!

Peter Navarro has been predicting "stagflation"--a stagnant economy with inflation--and it may well have arrived.

...The economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.1 percent, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Thursday. This was officially a "miss" because economists had forecast a two percent growth rate in the first quarter. And it was a slowdown for the economy after the 2.6 percent growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year.

The headline figure, however, does not tell the full story. Personal consumption expenditures rose by 3.7 percent, the fastest rate of growth in nearly two years. Consumers spent more on both goods and services, undermining the widespread economic thesis that goods spending would retreat in the first quarter.

Even more striking, underlying inflation accelerated. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose at 4.2 percent annualized pace in the January to March period, up from 3.7 percent in the final three months of last year. Core PCE inflation jumped 4.9 percent, much more than forecast and the fastest rate of quarterly inflation in a year. In the fourth quarter of last year, core PCE inflation ran at 4.4 percent....

(Source:  Breitbart Newsletter)  

Not mentioned?  The NY and Philly Feds' manufacturing indexes, which both fell.  On Monday we'll have a look at the PMI for April.  

Manufacturing powers the economy--just ask the Red Chinese, who have stolen as much manufacturing as possible from the US, and did that for a reason.  That consumer spend (PCE) is going to go away, too, when the effect of the current layoff surge hits, probably in June/July.

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