Tuesday, October 20, 2020

Trump Ain't 'Shining On' His People

Alan Tonelson was a Sensenbrenner aide for a while.  I've read his stuff regularly but not often; he is simply NOT a fanbois of Trump (or any of the others, either); he just reads the numbers and draws conclusions.

...the portrayal of Donald Trump as a phony populist is as popular among his opponents nowadays as during the 2016 presidential election. Back then, no less a critic than former President Obama charged that candidate Trump was selling “ordinary people” a bill of goods that belied his record of “never” showing “any regard for workers.”...

...But with Mr. Trump having nearly completed his first term in office, does any evidence show that the everyday Americans who comprise so much of his base should be feeling buyer’s remorse? Has their lot worsened under a flim-flam man whose real priority is his fellow One-Percenters?  ...


...Not according to one set of official figures that’s especially good at gauging the fortunes of Mr. Trump’s core supporters over time: the Labor Department’s quarterly County Employment and Wages series. The final 2019 figures are out, and reveal a striking pattern when matched with the list of counties that voted for Mr. Obama in both 2008 and 2012 and then flipped for Mr. Trump: Average annual private-sector pay in most of these flip counties rose faster during the first three years of the Trump administration than during the last three years of the Mr. Obama’s presidency.

Moreover, this improvement didn’t simply stem from a single good year dragging up harder times. For the Trump-era edge was even greater as of the end of 2018, as reported in this TAC piece.

The flip counties are good proxies for Trump’s working- and middle-class supporters because their salary levels generally trail the national average ($59,202) considerably. And due to their consistent support for Mr. Obama, their voters overall couldn’t have been attracted by whatever racist or xenophobic dogwhistles the President is often accused of issuing. Surely, most saw Mr. Trump’s populist economic message as the biggest draw....

Did you catch that?  These were OBAMA counties before Trump's policies kicked in.

That ALSO accounts for the continuing enthusiasm for Trump, the loyalty of his supporters, and (one could argue) for what is emerging as serious upward momentum in his polling numbers.  

It also accounts for the Cloud People's steady dislike/hatred for Trump:  their incomes didn't improve with Trump and they really don't give a flying fart for the 'dirt people,' either. That's why the Wa. Examiner, Sykes, Kristol, et.al. continue their ranting and raving.  They have no skin in the game at all.

And that's a good thing.


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