HT: CalcRisk
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
The Glimmer of Good: Industrial Capacity Utilization
Despite all the efforts of the Obozoites, this graph is heading north!
Based on what we've seen and heard in Wisconsin, the graph does not deceive. You should expect a steady or decreasing unemployment rate here over the next 12 months or so.
HT: CalcRisk
HT: CalcRisk
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4 comments:
Doesn't exactly lend itself to the premise that regulatory uncertainty is ruining the country does it?
Keep an eye on net ex. in GDP to see what role dollar devaluation is playing in domestic manufacturing recovery.
You and I know that capacity utilization is a factor of demand, period.
In Wisconsin, exports, military orders, and pretty-good consumer durable activity is keeping shops running.
Reg uncertainties (MACT, utility restrictions, etc.) and ObozoCare are all--temporarily--in the future.
I'd be very careful about 2013/2014 predictions, b/c that's when all the shit will hit the fan unless something changes in DC.
Long-term trend points to a continuing downward direction. I do not see that changing for a very long time.
L/T trend, however, includes the huge PRChina off-shoring move, which is turning into a disaster.
I'm seeing a lot of work returning to the US for quality and JIT reasons, which translate into cost-savings.
That does not apply to textiles--yet, nor electronix (because I don't KNOW about the electronix stuff).
Metalbending? Coming back.
Further, "capacity utilization" includes utilities and mines--and oil-extraction. Utilities will ramp up as does ind'l production, and oil-extraction will ramp up when Obozo leaves office.
Weakest: lumber. Home-building is dead and will remain so for quite some time.
How-some-ever: much of the cap-utilization increases will come from mechanization/automation. Thus, labor-content will at best remain flat for a while.
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