Friday, August 21, 2009

ObamaFiction, Part 2: "Costs"

Hennessey observes that Obama is either seriously mis-informed about the costs of ObamaCare, or he's seriously mis-leading YOU about them. (Your choice, folks.)

Obama uses "$80-$100Bn/year to cover everybody" under ObamaCare. That's an "average" figure--and he uses that for a reason. The actual figures are hair-on-fire scary.

CBO estimates the “effects on the deficit of insurance coverage provisions” in the House bill, H.R. 3200, to be $1,042 billion over a ten year period. (See page 2 of the estimate.) The $800B – $900B figure cited by the President may be his expectation of the still-private Baucus bill.

But the program is in effect for only about five of these ten years. In the House bill, the new coverage provision begins in year 4 (2013) and phase up to full effect only in year 6 (2015). To calculate the per-year cost, therefore, you should divide by roughly six, rather than by 10.

In addition, the new spending grows really fast, so the spending in year 10 (2019) is much bigger than in year six.
CBO estimates the new coverage provisions would cost $202 B in 2019, rather than the President’s $80 B (last Saturday) or $100 B (last Thursday) annual cost figures

Obama has been pretty careful to avoid telling you a few factoids. First off, the tax increases to support HR3200 go into effect 2 years before the program does--meaning that for a very short time, there will be an "ObamaCare surplus." He NEVER mentions the cost picture beginning Year 11 and forward, preferring the cute little numbers that he "averages" in the first 10 years.

And he doesn't mention what Hennessey points out: that lying with averages is STILL lying.

1 comment:

Left Coast Rebel said...

I vote for the seriously misleading us side......Wow.