Tuesday, November 17, 2009

What's Going On With Elections?

Barone--a very astute observer:

Sometimes a poll result slaps you in the face. That was the case for me when I saw Public Policy Polling’s results in the 2nd congressional district of Arkansas. PPP has the incumbent, Democrat Vic Snyder, leading three unknown Republicans (two-thirds to three-quarters of respondents could not describe their feelings toward them) by margins of 44%-43%, 44%-42% and 45%-42%. No, it doesn’t matter which Republican got the best score. The news here is that a seven-term Democratic incumbent, an intelligent man (he has earned an M.D.) with no disqualifying personal characteristics or accusations of scandal (so far as I know) is running significantly below 50% and is essentially tied with three unknown Republicans.

...Arkansas 2 is part of what I call the Jacksonian belt, the swath of counties from southwestern Pennsylvania along the Appalachian chain and extending to Oklahoma and Texas which were largely settled by the Scots-Irish immigrants that streamed into America in the dozen years before the Revolution and their descendants...

If Vic Snyder is in trouble, it’s a good bet that many other Democrats from the Jacksonian belt are too. Arkansas 2 is not the most anti-Obama district in the Jacksonian belt; John McCain won it by a 54%-44% margin, and Obama carried Pulaski County which includes Little Rock and its close-in suburbs...

Heh. By all means, let's do ObamaCare. And Cap-n-Tax. And Immigration Reform.

Let's do 'em now!!

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