Sunday, April 12, 2020

How Deadly IS China-Virus??

As many of us suspected, the Chinese coronavirus is not nearly as "fatal" as advertised by some.  On the other hand, it's more deadly than typical influenza, which is not what I expected.

...Over the last two weeks, German virologists tested nearly 80 percent of the population of Gangelt for antibodies that indicate whether they'd been infected by the coronavirus. Around 15 percent had been infected, allowing them to calculate a COVID-19 infection fatality rate of about 0.37 percent. The researchers also concluded that people who recover from the infection are immune to reinfection, at least for a while....

For comparison, the U.S. infection fatality rates for the 1957–58 flu epidemic was around 0.27 percent; for the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic, it was about 2.6 percent. For seasonal flu, the rate typically averages around 0.1 percent. Basically, the German researchers found that the coronavirus kills about four times as many infected people than seasonal flu viruses do....
But there's more, and it's good news (except for the modelers and wannabee dictators....)

...The authors developed a high-specificity (>99%) test for anti-virus antibodies and tested a significant fraction of the village. They found that 7x as many people were positive for antibodies as were positive for viral RNA—15% of the total population.  There’s good reason to think these results could be approximately representative of the rest of the world. The case-fatality rate based on RNA tests is in the range observed in the non-overwhelmed world. 

This is a small and preliminary study, but if the results are borne out by others, then the mortality rates from even the direst models have to be divided by at least 7. That’s still a lot of deaths, but (as the authors of the report indicate) it means that milder mitigation measures may be sufficient once we’ve got the hotspots (like New York City) under control....
In that study, they determined a valid denominator and found that a LOT of people had it but were asymptomatic or the symptoms were very mild indeed.  However, if you get it, you have a 3-in-100 chance of dying from it--with that "3" heavily salted with individuals with high blood pressure, diabetes, asthma/COPD, or heart problems.

Is that really enough to demolish the US economy?

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