The Mayor of Port Washington should be having sleepless nights over this.
"So where is the Achilles heel? I think that it resides with Anthropic and OpenAI, because they are so central to the entire AI food chain. According to reports from various Wall Street firms, something like 70% of hyperscaler AI revenue comes from Anthropic and OpenAI... I can't confirm those statistics, but they sound right given what we actually know about Oracle."
... "OpenAI's June quarter revenue reached $6.7 billion, up only 18% versus the March quarter. Compare that to Anthropic's revenue of $11 billion-plus in the June quarter, which was up over 100%... OpenAI's costs reached $12.3 billion, up $3 billion versus the March quarter. So, in three months, revenue increased $1 billion, but costs surged $3 billion. Things are not moving in the right direction."...
Now the fun:
...Chief revenue officer Denise Dresser left in August after roughly eight months, two days after Brad Lightcap ended an eight-year run. ...
Dresser is a surprise, as she would (putatively) make a Large Fortune at the IPO.
...And Eisman doesn't mention Fidji Simo, who stepped down in July and was arguably the bigger loss....
Aaaaaaand the conclusion:
..."If OpenAI fails, Oracle is in immediate trouble because of the large increase in Oracle's debt levels. Oracle's debt rating is barely above junk. Oracle's S&P credit rating is triple-B-minus, which is quite weak. Like I said before, it has a $600 billion backlog, and half of that backlog is from OpenAI." ...
Like we said, the Mayor of Port Washington's head is not resting easily on the pillow.
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