Cahaly 'Splains the Polling Problem

Trafalgar was THE accurate poll in '16.  Same with '20--although there was this 'election fraud' thing which he didn't factor into the equasion.

His polling was off this year, too.  How does he explain it?

Q)  This obviously is not an exact science, all this stuff. It seems like something where you need to keep adjusting all the time.

 
That’s not the weakness, though. The weakness was our turnout model. You have your methodology, to collect and process your samples, and then you have the turnout, your model of who’s going to vote. The two halves of the sandwich.

So our methodology will not change, and we’ll adjust our turnout model. Like I said, the two sides to the sandwich. You don’t throw out the top side that hasn’t really had a problem, you throw out the bottom side. Because when you look at some of the places that did have the expected turnout, they weren’t that off. When you look at places that did not have the expected turnout, they were very off. So we’ve got to adjust that....

He didn't say "Dane County" but that's exactly what he meant.

The (D) "turnout" in Dane County wasn't really hard to figure out:  Democrat operatives hit every.  single.  student.  at UW-Madison.  Every damned one.  And--as you might guess--every damned one of them "voted" Democrat.  (In reality, as Treehouse points out, every one of them balloted Democrat.)

Between the children, the bureaucrats, and the feckless drifters who never left college (and are now well into their 60's), those operatives had a gold mine.

Ninety percent!