Saturday, February 04, 2012

More on the Unemployment Numbers

Steve the Number-Cruncher has a couple of pertinent observations.

On a seasonal basis, the 141,637,000 employed is lower than it was in February 2009, and indeed the last time prior to that point it was that low was May 2005. On the other side of the equation, the 12,758,000 officially unemployed (i.e., they didn’t have a job and looked for one in the 4 weeks prior to the mid-January survey) is higher than any point prior to February 2009. Worse, the 6,319,000 who want a job but were not counted as “unemployed” because they had not looked for work in the previous 4 weeks was higher than any point between May 1994 (the fifth month this stat was recorded) and December 2010, and over 1 million higher than any time between one month prior to Bill Clinton’s re-election (October 1996) and Barack Obama’s election in November 2008. Zero Hedge noticed a record 1.2 million departing the labor force on a seasonal basis (or if you prefer unseasoned numbers, Ed Morrissey noted it as nearly 1.6 million on an unadjusted basis).

It ain't pretty.

1 comment:

Saint Revolution said...

Seasonal adjustments have ALWAYS been bullshit...all the way back to when I was "educated" in ecomonics, accounting, statistics, calculus, and computers by our wonderful robberbaron universities.

"Cosmetic-izing" of REAL numbers.

Guns and butter bullshit.

Reality is weighted averages.

Nobody calculates weighted averages any more...I guess that's just too complicated for the 100 IQ MSM and MSM viewer...and who knows and understands REAL statistics and REAL calculus any more except us that still remember being explained the abacus in first grade math?

So, REAL numbers:

February 02, 2012
U.S. UnEmployment Up, To 8.6% in January:
U.S. unemployment, as measured by GALLUP® without seasonal adjustment, increased slightly to 8.6% in January from 8.5% in December. Underemployment increased more sharply as a higher number of part-time workers sought full-time work:

Now, the process is simple:

Go here:

Click "Download complete trend" link button.

Save the DataSet-USWRKF125639-20120204.csv flat file to whereever.

Open DataSet-USWRKF125639-20120204.csv in Excel...or any spreadshit program if you're going to bitch about using MicroSucks products.

Create and run macro function average for all columns of data.

If you're too lazy to do the work yourself to prove it to yourself instead of taking my word/work for it...or if you don't have a clue as to what I am writing about above (in which case you SHOULD only be using an abacus...hey, that grey mass there...yeah, that one right there...that's your brain...USE IT!)...then just read the results below.

The REAL results?

On average, LESS THAN 65% of the US workforce has been employed full-time in the last ~2 years.

REAL unemployment the last ~2 years? ~27%.

Unaccounted for the last ~2 years? ~8%.

~35% of the working population in America are "floating out there somewhere"...but they sure ain't working.

These "non-seasonally-adjusted" numbers are obtained by GALLUP® calling and talking to ~30,000 Americans EVERY DAY, 7x365...a f**k of a lot more accurate work than the BLS does...and I am SURE GALLUP® workers are paid much less than the overpaid entitled indentured civil f**kwad BLS BS'ers. BLS BS'ers, by the way, readjust almost every false number they initially report...such a reliable source of information...our THERE'S no conflict of interest. Just like hiring a cop to be your lawyer.


REALITY...not OTraumanomics.

Take it from someone closer to this than you know.

Peruse other Saint Revolution Dad29 blog comments here.