Tonelson is a steady voice (not a propagandist nor a grifter) on the national economics scene, so when he propounds, it's good to pay attention.
...When it comes to job creation during the Biden years – a point of particular pride – the answer could well lie in an almost completely ignored trend in the official employment data: Job creation has slowed notably during the last year. Moreover, it’s slowed not only nationally, but in most of the battleground states widely viewed as crucial to both Ms. Harris’ and rival Donald Trump’s chances for victory.
To get comparable three years’ worth of annual totals incorporating the latest monthly official jobs year in office, I’ve looked at the June-to-June figures. All the data here come from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly employment reports, and from the Bureau’s state-by-state “Economy at a Glance” series....
Think what you like about Government stats. What follows ain't good for Harris.
...During that first year, the Biden economy churned out jobs at a sizzling 548,830 per month, as non-farm payrolls (NFP – the U.S. Government’s employment universe) rose by 4.48 percent in total. And the headline unemployment rate sank from 5.9 percent to 3.6 percent. [Yes, but that was the rebound from the Covid quarantines.]
From June, 2022 to June, 2023, however, the monthly growth rate cooled to 306,580, and the report -- I’ve looked at the June-to-June results since June, 2021 – five months into President Biden’s first percentage gain to 2.41 percent. But although the unemployment rate at a very low 3.6 percent, it failed to improve further.
Over the past year, monthly job creation rose by just 217,580 per month, and unemployment actually increased from 3.6 percent to 4.1 percent – still quite low, but worsening....
Now he will drive the pollsters nuts. This is a very brief and NOT nuanced summary of his next few grafs:
Arizona is up, Nevada is down. Georgia and North Carolina? Meh. Wisconsin is down. Michigan and Pennsylvania are up.
He looks at both "job creation" and the official unemployment rate, by the way. Worth the read if you are sorta geeky.
Then there's this:
Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the Biden-Harris government is continuing to replace native-born American workers with immigrant labor entering the country both legally and illegally. Over the last year, native-born Americans have seen total job losses hit 1.2 million. Meanwhile, foreign-born employment has risen by 1.3 million jobs...
That won't play well off-Broadway, either.
1 comment:
Slow?
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