Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Jay Weber's Really Awful Logic

As Jay departed the air today, he observed that since Chinese Communist Party Virus (CCC-V) has killed 44,000 or so people, it's "worse than" the Asian flu(s) which usually kill less people in any given year.

Sorry, Jay.  Your conclusion is just plain wrong.  Not logical.

Let's grant that all the CCC-V deaths are, actually, caused by CCC-V, which is a generous reading of the situation.

THEN let's factor in the two latest California studies, which tell us that the CCC-V has been around for MUCH longer and has infected FAR MORE people than the (ridiculous) IHME stats admit.  In fact, the California studies tell us that CCC-V has a death rate of 0.1%, which is comparable to Flu-A or -B:  1 of 1,000 infected will die.

The math here is simple, Jay:  44,000 deaths mean that there were 44,000,000 infections--whether "confirmed" or not, and most important, whether the infected person KNEW they were sick or not.  And as you and others have reported, there are lots of people who had the disease but it wasn't "serious," or who had it and was uncomfortable but didn't bother with a doc or hospital......you get the picture.  Could easily be 44,000,000, which is only 13% of the US population.

But for you to conclude that 'more deaths = worse death-rate'?  Can't be supported logically. 

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