Thursday, October 14, 2010

The Cause of the Discontent

VDH nails it.

...Barack Obama apparently never figured out that he had been elected in part because that massive Republican borrowing had sickened the American people. So in near-suicidal fashion, he took Bush's last scheduled budget deficit of more than $500 billion -- in a Keynesian attempt to get the country out of the 2008 recession and financial panic -- and nearly tripled it by 2010.

The Republicans did NOT lose Congress in 2006 because they were too tightfisted, and McCain did NOT lose because he was too conservative. McCain supported TARP; that was the day his polling began to sunset.

...the public is tired of the nonchalant way that smarmy public officials take credit for dishing out someone else's cash without a thought of paying for it....

And the Boyzzz of Tax-Increase are in trouble, too:

Second, there is a growing sense of despair that even vastly increased income taxes cannot cover the colossal shortfalls. At least the old Clinton tax rates of the 1990s balanced the budget. But should we bring them back, we would still run a deficit of more than $1 trillion in 2011 -- given the vast increases in federal spending.

The meat of the matter is here:

...it does no good for Beltway technocrats to explain how deficits are good at "stimulating" the economy, or why they do not really have to be paid back. Voters know that such gibberish does not apply to their own mortgages and credit card bills.

Voters feel relieved when they can pay off debt and become chronically depressed when they cannot

And it does not get better if you take a chill-pill.

there is real fear that something terrible will soon come from this unsustainable level of spending

.....like the possibility that we will not be able to import petroleum? Clothing?

Who knows??


5 comments:

J. Strupp said...

"...Barack Obama apparently never figured out that he had been elected in part because that massive Republican borrowing had sickened the American people."

The deficit was not a big issue in getting Obama elected. In fact, almost nobody voted for Obama based on excessive debt levels. And the people who are freaked out right now didn't vote for him anyway. The financial crisis and collapse in employment got Obama elected.

"there is real fear that something terrible will soon come from this unsustainable level of spending"

No there is not. Not in the bond markets. Not in equity markets. Not among people who know better. not in the short term. This is a manufactured lie that has been told so many times that's it's just assumed to be true. Maybe your neighbor is freaked out because he doesn't understand that debt is a function of GDP but the market understands this full well which is why there is simply no indication that U.S. debt levels are a serious short term problem.

Dad29 said...

almost nobody voted for Obama based on excessive debt levels

Umnhhh....McPain's turnout went south as soon as he voted for TARP. That contributed quite a bit in a 6-point margin.

Not in the bond markets. Not in equity markets. Not among people who know better.

No. Only in the USD, gold, and base commodities. And today in the 30-year. And the 10-year auction of yesterday? Falloff in bid/cover AND in indirect buys.

The "smart" people, remember, designed CDO's without a "home-price-falling" factor. The "smart" people reduced margin requirements for the IB's.

The "smart" people spend $800Bn on projects which DO NOT EXIST.

Yup. They're real smart.

J. Strupp said...

"Umnhhh....McPain's turnout went south as soon as he voted for TARP. That contributed quite a bit in a 6-point margin."

Come on. People turned on McCain's as soon as the public realized that the economy was in free fall and they might lose there jobs. The average American didn't know what the hell even was until much later in time.


"And today in the 30-year. And the 10-year auction of yesterday? Falloff in bid/cover AND in indirect buys"

How much did they sell for in terms of historical data? Were there any left unsold? What's the long term yield on the 30 and 10 year again?

And we'll see about gold and the other commodities. I'm very skeptical about whats happening there.

Dad29 said...

You can look it up: McCain's numbers went south immediately after he "suspended his campaign" in October.

Gold is a bubble. The others? We'll see.

J. Strupp said...

McCain's numbers started going south about the same time that he announced his running mate too. I'm not saying that's the reason, all i'm saying is that A LOT happened in that time window.

Commodities are definately worth watching right now. I'm not sure what to think yet.