Friday, October 23, 2009

ObamaCare Cost vs. Wisconsin Projections

Some of you recall that there was a serious move towards installing a Wisconsin fore-runner of ObamaCare in late 2006/early 2007.

While that move was scuttled, the numbers are very interesting, indeed.

WHP, a proposal from Richards (D) and Gielow (R), will be funded by a 12% tax on employers and a 2% tax on employees, and will raise $12 billion/year for health-care expenses in Wisconsin.

However, WPRI analysis (admittedly not by actuaries) shows that the actual cost is likely to be between $16 Bn. and $20 Bn.

...That would raise the tax to 18% on employers and 3% on individuals...for a plan which has a $2K out-of-pocket (less $500.00 HSA) stop-loss for individuals? Really!

So. The numbers for Wisconsin, which were pretty carefully researched, tell us that the actual cost of "healthcare for all" will run around 18% of payroll plus 3% of individual income. (Those are approximations--see P. 10 of this report for the WHP original funding proposal which would come up short of expenditures.)

Just for funsies: if there were NO inflation between then and now, and Wisconsin's population was/is 1/50th of the entire USA, then ObamaCare's actual cost would run around 50X$18Bn, or $900Bn.

So far, so good--the ObamaCare estimates run in that neighborhood.

But somehow, the ObamaCare agitprop forgets to mention that 18% of payroll plus 3% of individual income when talking about the actual impact.

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