Monday, October 26, 2009

Light's In the Tunnel on Recession End?

Calculated Risk caught this:

"At –0.63 in September (up from –0.96 in the previous month), the index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend. However, the CFNAI-MA3 in September improved to a level greater than –0.7 for the first time since the early months of this recession. For the four previous recessions, the first month when the CFNAI-MA3 was above –0.7 coincided closely with the end of each recession as eventually determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research." --Chicago Fed

There are some other optimists out there, and some really dark pessimists.

Politically, the only thing that counts is the U-6, and looking at the chart through September, that is NOT very good for the Party in Power.

1 comment:

J. Strupp said...

I agree completely on U-6. It's all about jobs (or the lack thereof).

Considering that we'd have to run close to 5% GDP growth for the next few years in order to get back to an unemployement rate below 7%, I'd say the administration is in for a bumpy ride.

Luckily for them, the alternative really isn't one which will most likely allow them to keep their jobs, come 2012.