...But as Levitt continued to process the numbers, the pattern changed. On February 1, when he first looked at the statistics, Hubei Province had 1,800 new cases a day. By February 6, that number had reached 4,700 new cases a day.
But on February 7, something changed. “The number of new infections started to drop linearly and did not stop,” Levitt said. “A week later, the same happened with the number of the deaths. This dramatic change in the curve marked the median point and enabled better prediction of when the pandemic will end. Based on that, I concluded that the situation in all of China will improve within two weeks. And, indeed, now there are very few new infection cases.”...
OK, so why is that?
...exponential models assume that people with the virus will continue to infect others at a steady rate. In the early phase of COVID-19, that rate was 2.2 people a day on average.
“In exponential growth models, you assume that new people can be infected every day, because you keep meeting new people,” Levitt said. “But, if you consider your own social circle, you basically meet the same people every day. You can meet new people on public transportation, for example; but even on the bus, after some time most passengers will either be infected or immune.”...
He also cites the Wuhan-Diamond Princess, in which only 20% of the passengers were infected; perhaps there is a natural immunity which is on our side, too.
16 comments:
I'm Celina Gomez from Canada, i have been cured from genital herpes with herbalist sakura herbal medicine.
i have been infected with Genital herpes for 1 year now , i have done so many medical treatment from different hospital still
not cured.
On a very good day , i decide to make a research on my computer on how to get rid of my Genital herpes,i found a post of Sarah Wilson on how she was cured from herpes with HERBALIST Sakura herbal remedy.
The Herbalist email was there as well drsakuraspellalter@gmail.com +2348160802189. i contacted him for my Genital herpes infection.
he needed few of my information and also send me his medicine through FedEx courier service.
i received it after 3 working days of shipment,i drink the herbal medicine the same way Dr sakura instructed.
but now my Genital herpes is gone totally without any side effect or harm, may God Almighty continuing to bless him abundantly .
you can contact him on mail/ whats-app dr.sakuraspellalter@gmail.com +2348110114739 or follow him on Instagram @herbalist_sakura
you can as well contact me for more information celinagomez784@gmail.com
I GOT CURED FROM HERPES,AFTER USING DR INIBOKU HERBAL MEDICINE.
I caught genital herpes from my ex boyfriend who never had any symptoms. I have had it for 4 months now,and it has affected my life. I have told my husband who I trusted about it and I have never had a bad reaction, it has affected my new relationships with my husband. People think herpes is really a minor skin irritation herpes has a long term effects on health. The stigma attached to this virus by ignorant people is ridiculous. Most people have herpes in one form or another. I would like to advise people on how i get rid of my herpes.i was reading a comment on the internet,and i saw a testimony posted by a woman from island that she get rid of her herpes with the help of doctor iniboku. so i was so happy when i saw that post,that his herbal medication is free.i quickly collect the herbal doctor email and i email him within 5 hr he respond to my email.i explain things to him he told me not to worry that i should fill his herbal form wish i did.he only request for little money that he will use to buy the items for the preparation of the herbal medicine,wish i send to him because the pain was too much for me to bear.after some days he told me that he has prepare the herbal medicine,that i should send him my address that he want to sent it to me via DHL or FED-EX that was how i got the herbal medication.and i use it as i was told.after few days i found out that my herpes was no more.when some of my friend who has herpes saw me they were surprise and i also introduce them to the man and they are also cure from the same herpes.if you have herpes,kindly contact doctor iniboku via this email drinibokuherbalhome@gmail.com / drinibokuspelltemple@gmail.com or whatsapp +2347059186346
Regarding genital Warts or herpes treatment. If you need a permanent cure and removal of it, be it Anal warts, Penis Warts, Vagina Warts, Oral Herpes or Genital Herpes. This site is the only site that i can recommend to anyone that can get rid of any kind of Warts or Herpes. I have ordered their medicine and it worked for me. I have also recommended it to a friend and she also testified positively about their medicine after using it. So i now concluded that it works perfectly, email him doctorvadi@yahoo.com or whatsApp +2348074133083
If it works for you, then you can as well recommend it to others. good luck.
My health was horrible before I decided to try the Protocol Of taking DR GOODMAN mixture. I felt there was no hope for my health and I was to try the Protocol thinking it wouldn’t work because I have visited so many hospitals but had the same result. However, I was convinced by my friend to try the herbal medicine because I wanted to get rid of HPV. The herbal mixture that was given to me was really quick and easy to take, and since I have been taking it for less than 3 days I have less of an outbreak. But within 2 weeks I was fully cured from HPV. The herbal medicine really work and I will like to share this great herb doctor contact with you all email him (DRGOODMANHEALTHCARE@GMAIL.COMor WhatsApp +2348079336082 Pls try and help yourself out of warts completely today. he also cure DIABETES UCLA CANCER etc.He also told me that he has a solution for.
1. Cancer cure
2. Diabetes cure
3. Ringing ear
4. Herpes cur
5. Warts cure
6. HPV cure
7. Get your ex back
8. Pregnancy herbal medicine
9.. Prostate enlargement
10. Hepatitis B
11. Disability
12. Kidney problem
13. Lupus
Website:
https://drgoodmanhealthcar.wixsite.com/drgoodmanherbalhea-1
I’m here to testify about what Dr Oseremen did for me. I have been suffering from (GENITAL HERPES VIRUS) disease for the past 4 years and had constant pain and inching, especially in my private part. During the first year, I had faith in God that i would be cured someday.This disease started circulating all over my body and I have been taking treatment from my doctor, few weeks ago I came across a testimony of Rose Smith on the internet testifying about a Man called Dr Oseremen on how he cured her from 7 years HSV 2. And she also gave the email address of this man, advise anybody to contact him for help on any kind of diseases that he would be of help, so I emailed him telling him about my (HSV 2) he told me not to worry that I was going to be cured!! Well, I never doubted him I have faith he can cure me too,, Dr Oseremen prepared and sent me Healing Oil, Soap, roots and herbs which I took. In the first one week, I started experiencing changes all over me, after four weeks of using his Roots/ Herbs, Oil and Soap, I was totally cured. no more inching , pain on me anymore as Dr Oseremen assured me. After some time I went to my doctor to do another test behold the result came out negative. So friends my advise is if you have such disease or know anyone who suffers from it or any other disease like HPV, HBV, HIV, ALS, HBP, CANCER etc. you can contact Dr oseremen for help via dr.oseremenvadi@gamil.com or whatsapp +2349056394313
TESTIMONY OF HOW I GOT CURED FROM (HERPES SIMPLEX VIRUS) BY THE GREAT HEALER DOCTOR EHBOS
Hello everyone I am here to testify of the great work Dr Ehbos did in my life with the help of his herbal traditional medicine. I have been suffering from Herpes since 2015 and ever since then I have been looking for solutions on how to cure it. I have being to different hospitals but I discovered none of them was working out for me that I was just wasting money. So I decided to live everything to God, then I was taking my medications to sustain my life and reduce the pains. So on this particular Sunday morning after coming back from service I sat down and begin to ask myself questions, then my phone rang behold it was my sister calling which I answered the call and she started telling me that a friend of hers who has been suffering from same herpes has just been cured by Dr Ehbos the herbal medicine man. Then I was over whelmed, even though I was a little bit confused so she encourage me to also give Dr Ehbos a trial and see for myself then I told her to help me get his contact and forward them to me, So immediately she got the contact of Dr Ehbos and send them to me, immediately I contacted Dr Ehbos and he told me everything I needed to do to enable me get the herbs for my medications and immediately i did that which he instructed me to do without wasting anytime. And here I am today sound and healthy without any symptoms of herpes or any sickness in my body system. And he also told me that there is no sickness on this planet earth that doesn’t have a cure that with the help of herbs he can cure any sickness or disease you can ever think off. So if you are suffering from HERPES or any other sickness or disease and you need a cure you can also contact Dr Ehbos with this Email Address at; drehbos@gmail.com or add him on whatsapp +2348133505254 so you can also receive your healing and share your testimony
I contracted hpv from my ex partner we broke up the relationship about four years ago, I has been on treatment for some years, I had lot pains and embarrassment for been hpv patient last two month i did hpv research online and found website for natural treatment to get ride of my infection, and i went through the site and recommend me to Dr onokun I contacted Dr onokun through his website and been his patient after one month I got cured. I want everyone living with hpv to get this treatment and got cured Dr onokun have the cure to every virus. his email; Dronokunherbalcure@gmail.com
A GREAT SPELL CASTER (DR. EMU) THAT HELP ME BRING BACK MY EX GIRLFRIEND.
Am so happy to testify about a great spell caster that helped me when all hope was lost for me to unite with my ex-girlfriend that I love so much. I had a girlfriend that love me so much but something terrible happen to our relationship one afternoon when her friend that was always trying to get to me was trying to force me to make love to her just because she was been jealous of her friend that i was dating and on the scene my girlfriend just walk in and she thought we had something special doing together, i tried to explain things to her that her friend always do this whenever she is not with me and i always refuse her but i never told her because i did not want the both of them to be enemies to each other but she never believed me. She broke up with me and I tried times without numbers to make her believe me but she never believed me until one day i heard about the DR. EMU and I emailed him and he replied to me so kindly and helped me get back my lovely relationship that was already gone for two months.
Email him at: Emutemple@gmail.com
Call or Whats-app him: +2347012841542
Hi Friends i am so glad to writing this article today to tell the world how Dr voodoo cured my HSV VIRUS,i have been detected with HSV-1 AND HSV-2 since five years ago, ever since then my life has been in complete bizarre and agony,i have used so many drugs that was prescribed to me by several doctors,but it didn't cure my HSV VIRUS neither did it reduce the pain,until a certain i was checking for solution in the internet,then miraculously came across Dr voodoo the powerful herbalist that cure numerous individuals HSV-1 AND HSV-2 INFECTION,then i contacted his whatsApp number at +2348140120719 or email: voodoospelltemple66@gmail.com i explained everything to him and prepared a cure that cure my HSV-1 AND HSV-2 disease totally after receiving his herbal medicine, so my friends viewers why wait and be suffer when there is someone like Dr voodoo that can cure any disease HIV/ CANCER/ HEPATITIS B VIRUS, you can contact his via : voodoospelltemple66@gmail.com or WHATSAPP +2348140120719
A MUST READ THE HERBALIST WHO CURE MY DAUGHTER FROM DIABETES
Hello everyone,I am sharing this wonderful testimony with a heart full of joy and happiness about how Dr OGODO uses his herbal medicine to cure my daughter from DIABETES.My daughter has been diagnosed with DIABETES over three {3} years. i try as much as possible to make sure my only daughter is cured yet to no avail. Last year january 2019 I had to fly my only daughter to INDIAN for treatment yet no possible result after spending a lot of money and [5] months over there.furthermore i keep searching for another location to make sure my daughter is cure yet i never give up because you know what it takes for your only daughter to be diagnosed of DIABETES and seeing her unhappy everytime and i never stop crying day and night because she is the only one left for me not when i lost his Dad in car accident.to cut the story short,it was my best friend who recommended this herbalist for me saying that she have seeing a lot of testimony on the internet on how Dr OGODO have been curing virus diseases such as [1]HERPES [2]CANCER [3] PENIS ENLARGEMENT [4] HEPATITIS [5]HSV/STD [6]HIV/AIDS [7]HIGH BLOOD PRESSURE [8] CLONE CLEANSING [9]COPD [10] KIDNEY DISEASE [11] GENITAL WART E.T.C immediately i contact him through email and told him what am passing through after some times he reply me and ask for my information which i did.A week later i received the medicine through DHL and he also call me on whatsapp number telling me how to use it then after using as he instructed i took my daughter for check up behold my doctor confirm to me that she is totally fine no more DIABETES i started sharing tears of joy.please and please contact this herbalist Dr for any health challenges via email [ogodoherbalhomesolution@gmail.com] OR WHATSAPP [+2349044680467}
https://www.facebook.com/oogoherbalhomesolution/
HOW I GOT CURED FROM HPV WARTS Greetings to the general public, i want to tell about how i was cured of HPV disease by a Doctor called DR MOMOH i was browsing through the Internet searching for remedy on HPV and i saw comment of people talking about how DR MOMOH cured them. I Was scared because i never believed in the Internet but i was convince to give him a try because i having no hope of been cured of HPV so i decided to contact him with his email that was listed on the comment when i contacted him he gave me hope and send a Herbal medicine to me that i took and it seriously worked for me, am a free person now without problem, my HPV result came out negative. I pray for you God will give you everlasting life, you shall not die before your time for being a sincere and great man. Am so happy, you can also contact him if you have any problem Email: dr.momoh9@gmail.com , or whatsApp him on this number +2347083724098 1. LOVE SPELL 2. ALS CURE 3. HEPATITIS B 4. HIV/AIDS CURE 5. HERPES CURE 6 SPIRITUAL HEALERS
My health and life was horrible before I decided to try the Protocol Of taking DR OYENPKEN mixture. I felt there was no hope for my health and I was to try the Protocol thinking it wouldn’t work because I have visited so many hospital but same result. However, I was convinced by my friend to try the herbal medicine because I wanted to get rid of Herpes Virus. The herbal mixture that was given to me was really quick and easy to take, and since I have be taking it for less than 5 days I have less outbreak. But within one week i was fully cured from Herpes virus. The herbal medicine really work and I will like to share this great herb doctor contact with you all email him Dr.oyenkpenherbalhome@gmail.com
or WhatsApp +2348059406701
Pls try and help yourself out of warts completely today. he also cure DIABETES UCLA CANCER etc.
He also told me that he has solution for the flowing.
1 Cancer cure
2 Diabetes cure
3 Ringing ear
4 Herpes cure
5 Warts cure
6 HPV cure
7 Get your ex back
8 Pregnancy herbal medicine
9 Prostate enlargement
10 Hepatitis B
11 Disability
12 Kidney problem Etc.....
Herpes is a painful viral infection that can reside dormant on the nerve. I'm so excited to share my testimonies about the Good Work of Dr.Edaghonghon who got me cured from herpes simplex virus (HSV1&2) with his herbs, I never thought that I would live on earth before the year runs out. I have been suffering from herpes, I have spent a lot of money going from one Hospital to another looking for ways to get rid of this disease, the hospital has been my home everyday. Constant checks up have been my hobby not until this fateful day, I was searching through the internet, I saw a testimony on how Dr. Edaghonghon helped someone in curing his herpes disease using his healing Herbs, quickly I copied his email just to give him a test I spoke to him, he told me that he is going to provide the herbal cure to me, which he did, after i receive his herbs and i take it as instructed i was cure permanently from herpes my herpes disease was gone. so I decided to share my testimony, that nothing is impossible with God, God uses a man to heal me. No matter what you are passing through, no matter how deadly the sickness is and no matter what the situation is God that did mine is still going to do yours, people suffering from herpes, brain tumor, kidney disease, pros, AIDS, ALS,copd, asthma, arthritis,herpes, Cancer,HPV, any kind of disease, you can reach him now via ? Gmail address: dr.edaghonghonherbalhome@gmail.com or whatsapp +2349056731866.
https://dredaghonghonherba.wixsite.com/dredaghonghonherbalh
I've been treating herpes virus for several years with different medications until I saw a post on how a young lady got cured from herpes, Out of desperation I decided to contact him with little or no hope of a solution after taken his herbal medications reluctantly to my biggest surprise I tested negative, God bless dr.ubarlohome@gmail.com or +2348119508814 for his wonderful work
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I got diagnosed with HPV, i have be dealing with this mess for the past 8yrs. On till i got review online about natural cure people testifies how they got curevd with natural treatment. And i order the treatment, after taking it for two weeks i totally got cured with herbal treatment. I'm recommending you diagnosis with HPV should get this treatment via: Dronokunherbalcure@gmail.com or Facebook page at: https://www.facebook.com/naturaltreatmentcenter1
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