Monday, September 20, 2010

YAAAY!! The Recession Is Over!

The announcement came from NBER, which determines such things.

The NBER has finally announced the most worthless and overdue piece of data, namely that somehow, miraculously, the US recession that started in December of 2007 ended in June of 2009.

ZeroHedge is a bit skeptical.

We have yet to hear when the distinguished Ph.D.-bearing shamans of Keynesianism at the NBER will convene to decide when the Depression that started in December of 2007 will end.

Snark here: When Obama leaves office.

There is a LOT riding on the answer to that question. The (R) Boyzzz know damn well that IF they take Congress and the appearance of recession doesn't dissipate in 12-14 months, they are dead meat, along with whoever they nominate for the President's race of '12.

OTOH, the (D) Boyzzz will have a hard time reviving their label, too.

Back to the TEA Party?


J. Strupp said...

Keynesians have been crystal clear about when this episode will end. When we boost AD to level high enough to increase growth substantially, boost capacity utilization and bring down unemployment all while the private sector continues to repair it's balance sheet. It's all about increasing growth in the short run to lift us out of the abyss (and even this will take years). Public debt is a long run problem that has little impact on our our short run crisis.

Unless we focus on our AD crisis in the short run, it doesn't matter if Mickey Mouse is at the helm. We'll experience an extended period of subpar growth, capacity utilization, disinflation (or deflation), contracting real wages, and stagnant employment levels which could eventually turn structural in nature.

We can waste our time with the political economics of the times or we can fix the damn thing and move forward. Unfortunately, as a nation we're paralyzed by partisanship and fear, so don't expect the good ol' days to come back for the forseeable future. IOW, cover your own a$$es, stick money under the mattress, keep your job at all costs and prepare to work well into your 60's if you're close to retirement age. Such are the times.

Dad29 said...

stick money under the mattress, keep your job at all costs and prepare to work well into your 60's if you're close to retirement age.

Yah, well, unlike others, I'll do that for my children and grandchildren, instead of leaving them with an absolutely un-sustainable national debt.

J. Strupp said...

1. You'll have to excuse me for being highly skeptical of your generation's ability to not pass on substantial debt on to your children/grandchildren.

2. In this world, debtload is a function of growth. You kill demand and you kill growth, which increases your debtload. You wanna bend the long run cost curve of future entitlement spending, be my guest. But tightening our belt immediately runs contrary to your wishes.

steveegg said...

How "convenient" that the ruling came down from on high just weeks before the Wipeout of 2010. The only thing that surprises me is the not-so-nonpartisan NBER didn't declare that it ended at noon Eastern 1/20/2009 (or would that have been too overt?).

As for the claim that things are improving, the annualized inflation-adjusted per-capita non-welfare wage for the first two quarters of 2010 is lower than the 2009 total, and 2009 saw the largest inflation-adjusted per-capita non-welfare wage drop since 1946.

J. Strupp said...

....and, as you know, wages are sticky. If the big guys have a stagnant top line next year and they're running a lean workforce as it is, guess where they'll keep squeezing?

Of course, a nominal pay freeze or slight cut might end up being a real wage increase in the end (sadly enough).