Saturday, August 23, 2008

If or When Obama Loses...

A very savvy commenter at Grim's Hall (Southern Democrats, folks) has discerned the tactics and the long-term strategy.

First, we note that Salon has decreed that if Obama loses, it is due to racism, pure and simple. (H/T to Grim here, too...)

What with the Bush legacy of reckless war and economic mismanagement, 2008 is a year that favors the generic Democratic candidate over the generic Republican one. Yet Barack Obama, with every natural and structural advantage in the presidential race, is running only neck-and-neck against John McCain, a sub-par Republican nominee with a list of liabilities longer than a Joe Biden monologue.

...let's be honest: If you break the numbers down, the reason Obama isn't ahead right now is that he trails badly among one group, older white voters. He does so for a simple reason: the color of his skin.


Next, here's the perspicacious and pertinent comment at Grim's:

In the long run, if Obama wins the Presidential election all this will die down and he'll retain control of the Party because he will have proved he can alienate some of the traditional Democratic groups and rely on his new coalition (young, elite, academic, etc added to African-Americans) to win. If Obama loses the Presidential election, things get interesting. Unless Obama can blame his loss on factors outside his control and make a believable case for why he should run again in 2012, those of his supporters who support *him* rather than the Democratic Party generally are going to wander off.

So clearly, if "racism" is the reason Obama loses, then he CAN blame his loss on 'factors outside his control' and retain viability for 2012--AND his supporters stay on board, AND he retains control of the Party.

It's now a "win/win" for Obama. He either gets the Presidency or the Party leadership.

Of course, that's assuming that he isn't found dead in the middle of an intersection in Arkansas.

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