Wednesday, August 27, 2008

"Down-Ballot" Impact of The O-and-Savior

Good analysis here.

First, the quote from Gallup:

Within the Democratic Party, Obama’s losses are primarily evident among the relatively small group that describes its political views as conservative. The 63% of conservative Democrats supporting Obama over McCain in Aug. 18-24 polling is the lowest Obama has earned since he clinched the Democratic nomination in June. At the same time, there have been no similar drops in support for Obama in the preferences of liberal or moderate Democrats.

Sez Morrissey:

It’s not just conservative Democrats, either, although that has to be Obama’s main concern at the moment. Blue-dog Democrats have to run for tough Congressional races in the fall, and they will get linked to Obama regardless of whether they publicly embrace him or not. If Obama is losing credibility among conservative Democrats, the Blue Dogs will find that Obama’s impact on their race will become a net negative and could cost some of them their seats — most of which they won from Republicans in 2006.

I'd suggest that we watch the Kagen race. If he imports Obama to joint-appear someplace, it tells us that Gallup is all wet.

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