Saturday, October 26, 2024

Optimistic Grim? Maybe.

Grim has been around the block a few times.  He's optimistic about WW Whichever but he's not being an idiot about it.

... the Iranian ballistic missile attacks on Israel demonstrated a capacity to cause damage that Israel cannot prevent even with US efforts. Last night's strikes by Israeli F-35s demonstrated a parallel capacity that Iran cannot stop. Both parties stopped short of damaging their opponents' energy sector -- Israel has only a handful of major power plants; Iran's oil and gas fields, its shipping ports, and also its nuclear technology facilities are likewise vulnerable. Both sides now know their opponent can hurt them fatally if it decides to do so; both sides also know that doing so will not disable the enemy's reprisal blow, as the time delay between suffering the damage and dying will not prevent the counterstrike from occurring. They are both heavily incentivized to stop fighting, according to the once-doubtful logic of Mutually Assured Destruction...

That's one of the two.

... if the election here brings about a regime that will seek peace in Ukraine on terms at least minimally acceptable to Russia, the closing of that theater will also reduce pressure on the Middle East. The Houthi could lose their capability to effectively close the Red Sea; weapons shipments to Hamas and Hezbollah could be reduced; the proxies themselves are badly degraded already. The war could close with minimal Russian gains in Ukraine balanced by massive strategic losses in manpower and equipment, with Iran's proxy war network exhausted for years, and Israel relatively secure but newly chastened about its ability to escalate without consequences. ...

The upshot, according to Grim?

Peace is at hand. Maybe...

Not being an idiot about it!

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

And it is Israel going to rebuild all the Catholic Churches and hospitals they bombed the crap out of? Make reparations for all the Catholics and Christians they killed?

And is the Ukraine going to allow elections and are they going to leave the Russian orthodox churches, and rebuild and return what they stole?

Anonymous said...

There will no peace until Israeli war crimes are punished.