Thursday, October 06, 2011

SocSec: Fugly. Ryan Plan Emergency Alert!

Steve has the numbers.  Don't read them if you're inclined to depression.


The 12-month OASI primary deficit peaked at $20.16 billion in the June 2010-May 2011 period, and isn’t expected to ever become a surplus again by the Social Security Trustees, the Congressional Budget Office, or me. My re-estimation of the 2009 Trustees’ intermediate-case scenario, the last one I have any confidence in, has that never dropping below $10.6 billion (in the February 2012-January 2013 period).

Just remember Ps. 23.


Jim said...

This is not news. The primary deficit does not include interest income on the Trust Fund. The deficit is as expected, give or take a year or two. That's why the Trust Fund was set up in 1983 to account for the baby-boomer deficit. Trust fund will provide sufficient funds to cover at 100% of benefits for the next 25 years and 77% of benefits beyond that without minor tweaks.

steveegg said...

2 points of order, Jim:

- That payment of interest, because the federal government is running a deficit on the rest of government, adds to the debt. Indeed, that is precisely why Obama was able to threaten the seniors with the non-payment of Social Security benefits back in August because he wanted to be able to ring up another $2 trillion-plus in debt before his term ends.

- The cost of monetizing the "Trust Funds" isn't accounted for by most people, but at over $7 trillion for combined operations over the next 25 years (or if you prefer to use the high-cost scenario, just shy of $5 trillion over the next 18), perhaps it should be. There isn't a single non-borrowed dollar around to do that, which is why intragovernmental debt is part of the debt covered by the ceiling.

J. Strupp said...

Then lets fix our long term debt problem outside of SS.

steveegg said...

Fine with me, Strupp. How about winding down Medicare as it's the long-term debt problem?

(That one was too easy.)

J. Strupp said...

Fine with me! Depends on what you replace it with though.

If you Repubicans get a say, sorry no deal. I've spent the past 30 years of my young life watching how you folks handle the middle class's economic well being. No chance I give you the keys to my physical well being too! ;)

Dad29 said... prefer (D) Death Panels to (R) Death Panels?

From 6' under, you CARE??