Saturday, October 29, 2011

PPP "Recall" Poll, By the Numbers

Steve, the Statistical Egg, takes down the PPP 'recall' poll.

...I do have to discuss the partisan split in the poll, specifically the 37% Democrat/32% independent/31% Republican split. It is the biggest D-to-R split over the series of polls dealing with a possible Walker recall, with Democrats holding a 37%-34% advantage in the mid-August poll taken immediately after the Democrats failed to seize control of the state Senate, a 37%-32% advantage in May, and a 33%-32% advantage in February. Most other pollsters not only have a far closer D-to-R split (with some recent polls having a slight R advantage), but as a nod to Wisconsin’s lack of party registration, they have the independent portion a bit higher than either party. Given the trend of the recalls against the Republican state Senators ultimately falling short, a more-reasonable split would be 36% I/32% D/32% R....

And that's just for starters.  More at the link.  As you can imagine, the PPP poll may have overstated the 'recall' movement's strength.

1 comment:

neomom said...

PPP is a Dem outfit, what a shock.