July Home Sales to be Disappointing

The national take:

While national existing home sales last month were clearly up from last July’s post-tax-credit cycle low (on a seasonally adjusted basis), it appears as if national closed sales last month did not rebound on a seasonally adjusted basis from June’s level – despite the increase in May and June pending sales. Indeed, based on my regional tracking (though I’m missing a lot of areas), and taking into account the lower business-day count this July than last July (which lower [the July 2011] seasonal factor relative to [July 2010]), I estimate that US existing home sales as measured by the National Association of Realtors may have actually declined slightly on a seasonally adjusted basis in July from June. This surprises me, given the rebound in pending sales in May and June. However, in quite a few areas of the country closed sales fell considerably short of what one would have expected given contract signings over the previous several months, either reflecting increased cancellations or closing delays. And in other areas, including some Florida markets, continued delays in the foreclosure process resulting in sizable declines in foreclosure sales.

HT:  CalcRisk