Wednesday, June 08, 2011

Shocker! Growth "Tepid"

Ceridian's real-time diesel-fuel consumption index confirms Obozo doesn't have a clue.

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation fell 0.9 percent on a seasonally and workday adjusted basis in May, after falling 0.5 percent in April.

The index has now declined in four of the first five months of 2011, and in eight of the past twelve months,” said Ed Leamer,...

Going nowhere slowly.

So the question: since Obozo & Co. have had their way for 3 years, do you really want to continue their "fix"?

HT: CalcRisk


J. Strupp said...

What are you complaining about? ARRA is done (and was weak anyway), public sector employment is contracting, the Fed. is ending QE2 at the end of the month and the President has turned his attention to deficit reduction. Obama has been running your playbook for the past 6 months.

What did you think? Consumers and the private sector would just spring to life?

Dad29 said...

No, Obama's been running the Marxist Ideologue playbook since he was installed.

The "Debt Reduction" part woulda/shoulda/coulda been at the top of the list.

We agree on SOME spending initiatives, but he's been totally irreponsible. It's like watching him pull out his **** and spray all over the yard instead of up against a fence.

J. Strupp said...

"No, Obama's been running the Marxist Ideologue playbook since he was installed"

I wouldsay his recent economic policy models the GOP's. ARRA is done, QEII is done at the end of this month and there are no plans for government to support growth or employment via any other fiscal or monetary stimulus. This is the Republican playbook from here on out. Sorry.

If debt reduction is your priority then stop complaining about growth. Debt reduction is a drag on growth. There is no way of changing C+G+I+NetEX given this economic environment. Just say you don't really care too much about growth or the employment situation in this country and be done with it.

Dad29 said...

I would say his recent economic policy models the GOP's.

So long as you count only ARRA and QE2, it may look (R).

But you can't possibly hold that his regulatory oppression (and threats of even more of it) is (R)-like, and that ALSO has an impact on business decisionmaking.

I'll agree with Romer that demand is flat, at best. The challenge for Obozo is to get people to buy stuff without incurring US debt to do it.

He wanted the job, eh?

Dad29 said...

Another possibility:

The Minnesotan is on firmer ground with his corporate tax overhaul, which would reduce the rate to 15% from the current 35% in return for cleaning out the warren of loopholes and special favors. Businesses will expand, enlarge their payrolls and repatriate overseas earnings. The added benefit is that most corporate welfare is dispensed through the tax code—so a flatter, simpler system will reduce political mediation of the economy and the resulting misallocation of capital. It is both a pro-growth tax policy and government reform.

Personal rate 10% on first $50K, 25% thereafter (double for married couples.)

J. Strupp said...

Sorry for the delay.

So you're fixing a demand problem with a supply solution? So businesses will repatriate money from overseas and then what? Use the capital tto build more warehouse, manufacturing, R&D imporvements they don't need because they don't have any customers?

And more income tax cuts? We've done this already. The return is very muted. Besides, I thought you were a deficit hawk? This idea runs contrary to everything you preach. Just saying.....

Dad29 said...

I haven't read P'ty's entire release; I think it SHOULD be revenue-neutral or tilted ever so slightly to a revenue increase.

HIS point is that it is something of a simplification AND (on the corporate side) less oriented to special gifts/exemptions/credits which, in the end, are usually anti-competitive.

The "demand" situation cannot be resolved easily, no matter what. But accumulating more Fed debt will NOT resolve the problem, as we've seen to date.

BTW, food prices are up 3% in the last 90 days.