Thursday, April 02, 2009

Recovery Sign


Commodities also are rallying as copper prices are at the highest since early Nov.

Copper is also "the old farts' economic indicator." When copper rises, it is generally a very good sign for the industrial economy.


J. Strupp said...

Bottoming out and recovery are two different things completely.

Ask the Japanese about the early 90's.

Dad29 said...


The rise in copper prices would comport with the Conventional Wisdom that a recovery will show up late this calendar year.

But then, the CW also predicts a "W" shaped recession/recovery cycle.

We'll see.

By the way: the COMPLETELY ignored story on Japan has to do with demographics. Japan has no children, to speak of; therefore, the middle-aged workers are saving money like crazy to prepare for supporting themselves in retirement.

Children CAUSE economic expansion, generally speaking.

J. Strupp said...

True as it relates to domestic consumption. But Japan has always been much more reliant on net exports to fuel expansion.

Yet somehow the Japanese managed to lose a decade of growth during a time period of booming global demand. I think the Japanese are a modern case study of what happens to a developed nation when it fails to properly repair it's financial system.

As we shall experience first hand I'm afraid.