Thursday, February 01, 2007

The End of the World? Belling's Analysis Flawed

Heard the prediction of The End of the World this afternoon--taxwise, that is, in Wisconsin.

Well, maybe--and maybe not.

Let's clear some underbrush.

1) The commuter-rail deal is a buzzing fly. Taxing rental cars is a bad idea, but the rail system idea is fatuous, no matter how many Chicago-based executives tell us otherwise. It remains to be seen whether the rail system will be built; I think Tom Barrett and Scott Walker are waiting for a better place to put the Federal dollars, and the very second it comes along, this idea is dead, dead, dead.

2) The fact that two school referendums passed in November is NOT significant. Belling thinks otherwise, but his analysis is in error. As we have often mentioned, the November election was an anomaly: there was an extraordinary turnout of lefties because of ONE issue: the Homosex Marriage amendment. It's dangerous to draw any conclusions from that particular election--except that John Gard made a horrendous error in placing the Amendment on the ballot (as he had been told.)

Don't conclude that Wisconsin residents are now assuming the position and purchasing Vaseline based on the 11/06 results.

3) Elmbrook's School Board proposes; Elmbrook VOTERS dispose. Rarely (if ever)do Elmbrook District voters put up yard signs and carry on over massive tax-increase proposals. They just vote them down. The voters in Elmbrook are sophisticated, and realize that the referendum's dollar-amount is merely a 'negotiating position.' The voters have their own position: it's called "NO" on the ballot. My bet: 3 tries before approval, at a MUCH smaller number.

4) Doyle proposes; the Legislature disposes. While DarthDoyle can veto his way around most anything (at some risk,) it's not likely that he will ram a boatload of tax increases through the Legislature, because the Republicans will NOT support them. For that matter, there are Democrats that won't, either.

5) As to 'removing caps' on school district spending: no Conservative supported the concept that the State should govern local taxing decisions in the first damn place. Conservatives believe in LOCAL CONTROL. Refer to #3 above if you have questions.

Wisconsin taxes are onerous and everybody knows it. Don't bet the farm on massive increases--either in cigarette taxes or in other taxes. The large turnout of highly motivated Lefties won't happen again soon; they're tending to their pot plantations for a while.

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