Friday, April 17, 2020

The Denominator JUMPS

Stanford prof supervised the study, Santa Clara County subjects (3300)--and guess what?

...The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%), and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%). Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases....
So you can take that "mortality" estimate and divide it by FIFTY (or eighty-five, if you like.)

Sorry.  The China Flu is no longer the deadliest thing since H-bombs.  It's not nearly as deadly as Flu-A or -B.  If you get it, you MAY die--but you had old age, lung problems, weight problems, or diabetes.

As to the rest of you.......enjoy Evers' Imprisonment!!

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