Wednesday, August 18, 2010

"Support" for Gay "Marriage"? Don't Believe It

After the Prop8 decision, the usual suspects trotted out polls which indicated that the American public supported gay "marriage."


According to Tom Jensen, director of the North-Carolina based Public Policy Polling (PPP), polls finding that a majority of Americans support homosexual "marriage" cannot be trusted because Americans are sometimes hesitant to state their position before a live interviewer who may judge them to be intolerant.

Jensen makes the point another way, too.

"It is frankly impossible," he continued, "based on the results of gay marriage referendums over the last decade, to believe that a majority of Americans support its legalization."

However, we all know that in AnthonyKennedyLand, one can create and live in one's own, personal, reality!

So, obviously, the polls are right. For at least a few people. No matter how many moons there are near their planet.


Anonymous said...

Classic Alinsky deception. In essence, you are saying one polling method is inherently better (automated system) than another polling method (live interviewers) because it generates more accurate results. So long as the methodology of carrying out a poll is HONORED, however, the results from polls are valid.

The outcome of polls you cite from now on ought to have been derived from live interviewers; otherwise, similar those results can be summarily dismissed in the manner of Tom Jensen, the director of Public Policy Polling.

Not that Jensen wouldn't have any bias, either.

Interesting how you use Public Policy Polling to “prove” a point. The clients from this business are primarily affiliated with Democrats. Its methods have come under fire with accusations of using polarizing questions, which can lead to biased results.

Here’s one such case...

Perhaps you just soiled yourself and need to wash up now.

Dad29 said...

PPP says what it says based on its experience.

But go ahead, construct whatever world you'd like to. Your current one has 3 moons--go for 5!

Anonymous said...

Rational counter-argument from Dad29, rather than suggestion of mental derangement?

Of course not! You're so cute when you insist there's only one view, rather than admit there are possible ways of looking at things differently.

This source says what it says based on its experience.

There are several factors that might account for the differences:

Different sample frames. PPP's poll is of registered voters, whereas CNN's was conducted among all adults. Since adults who are not registered to vote tend to be younger, and younger people tend to be more supportive of gay marriage, that might account for a couple points' worth of difference. However, this might be counteracted to some extent by the fact that minorities are also more likely to be unregistered, and African-Americans tend to show demonstrably less support for gay marriage (it is not clear that this is true of Hispanics or Asians.)

Different question wording. PPP's poll asked whether gay marriage should be legal or illegal; CNN's asked whether there is currently, and whether there should be, a Constitutional right to it. These are somewhat different questions both in theory and especially in practice given the strong feelings that Americans have about the Constitution.

Sample variance. In other words, random noise. PPP's poll consisted of 606 voters, a relatively small sample; CNN's consisted of 1,000 adults, which is not much larger, and their sample was split into halves by the two forms of the question that they posed.

Here's what I think it's safe to say: it is dangerous, and probably even a little irresponsible, to say "Americans think so-and-so" based on the results of one individual survey -- especially when it's your survey. Jensen, for instance, headlined his article "Americans still opposed to gay marriage". That's a little presumptuous, particularly when you are not calling unregistered voters, and are not calling anyone who uses a cellphone rather than a landline, which will disqualify around 45 percent of the American population -- and when most of the remaining 55 percent will hang up once they recognize its a pollster calling.

By all means, there should be more polling on gay marriage, including from automated survey firms. But particularly when your survey produces results that are "different" from the consensus -- this is arguably true of the CNN poll, and certainly true of the PPP poll -- you should perhaps go back and do some additional diligence, whether that means going into the field with a larger sample size, asking the questions in a different way, or paying for a cellphone sample, rather than proclaiming what may be a bug to be a feature.

More at the link...

Dad29 said...

The payoff question--asked by NEITHER of those firms--was asked, instead, in various States.

So far, 37 have made gay "marriage" un-Constitutional.

And by solid margins. In fact, "outliers" are the two which (by referendum) voted otherwise.

Anonymous said...

The payoff question--asked by NEITHER of those firms...

Already distancing yourself from the poll???

What I am disputing is not the poll results you cite, but your arrogance in pronouncing how that one poll, compared to another poll, is "absolute" when the facts clearly do not support that assertion.

So far, 37 have made gay "marriage" un-Constitutional and by solid margins.

Let's be clearer and precise, shall we?

As of 2010, 25 states have banned gay marriage through the Constitutional process. 8 states have banned gay marriage through statute.

By 1994, 45 of the 50 states, by STATUTE, NOT CONSTITUTION, defined marriage as one man/one woman; several of those states had this law on the books since the 1970's.

The voting patterns in those state legislatures ranged from being close to competitive to majority.

Several states endured state Supreme Court decisions which struck down those statutes as being unconstitutional.

Those states in response (primarily "Bible Belt" and/or "red") amended their Constitutions through referendum, in some cases by clear margins, to overturn that decision;

Some states had a federal appeals court strike down their constitutional amendment. Now it's off to the Supreme Court, which may or may not decide the matter with a definitive ruling.

VSO said...

Dad29, don't feed the troll, who obviously has nothing better to do than try to win a fruitless argument on the internet.

Dad29 said...

Thanks, VSO--

But one last shot:

Ho-hum. Gay "marriage" ain't gonna happen.

Anonymous said...

VSO--Dad29, don't feed the troll, who obviously has nothing better to do than try to win a fruitless argument on the internet.

Isn't that what Dad29 does???

Dad29--Ho-hum. Gay "marriage" ain't gonna happen.

We shall see. Anthony Kennedy holds the key.