Do Economist "Bulls" Dissemble? You Bet!

Go long on dissembling. You'll make money.

This morning, we're treated to a WSJ opinion piece by Brian Wesbury, a 'credentialed' economist. He advises that economists are smarter than regular people. The money-quote:

In short, over the past five years, forecasting economists from academia, consulting shops, financial services and industry have a perfect 5-0 record against a random sample of American citizens.

Of course, the above is true. It's what Wesbury does NOT address which makes his piece an artful dissembling. Notes The Big Picture:

My issue is with the phrase "the past five years." That time period was no doubt chosen because it omits the last recession.

Why? There is a specific reason for omitting that time period: Economists, as a group, failed to forecast the 2001 recession. In fact, even when we were smack dab in the middle of it, the group failed to notice it.

AS A GROUP, ECONOMISTS HAVE NEVER CORRECTLY FORECAST A U.S. RECESSION. EVER.

For sure, certain Individuals may have gotten it right, but the collective group has a perfect record of missing the major turns.

In other words, Wesbury is practicing "proof-texting" with time periods.