Tuesday, January 02, 2007

Somalia: It's Only Chapter Two (or Three?)

The Muslimist gang which took over governance of portions of Somalia was called the ICU--the Islamist Courts Union.

In the last week or so, ICU has been chased out, forcefully, by the Somali government, assisted by the Ethiopian Army.

But it's not exactly over yet:

My source reports that even in areas that the ICU controls, it is giving up active control and forming "shadow governments." The term "shadow government" refers to Mafia-style governance, similar to what Al Capone had in Chicago in the 1920s: in these areas the ICU doesn't have formal control, but is the real power. This mirrors the Taliban's position in much of northern Pakistan.

Moreover, my source says that "the real battle" in Somalia will likely begin when Ethiopia begins to pull its troops back. Thus far, ICU forces have been melting away as the Ethiopians advance. This is reminiscent of the Taliban's dispersal after Kandahar fell in Afghanistan. There is confirmation that the three suspects in the 1998 East Africa embassy bombings who were in Somalia escaped during the ICU's retreat. Some ICU members are trying to escape to Kenya, and have a good chance of succeeding because the Kenyan police are notoriously corrupt. ICU leader Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys is nowhere to be seen. Ethiopians and U.S. intelligence reportedly put the number of ICU fighters killed in the thousands.

My source reports that as the ICU left Mogadishu, they opened the jails and gave the criminal population all the weapons that the ICU wasn't able to take with it. This action was designed to give the Ethiopians and transitional government more problems to take care of as they assume control of the city.

IOW, it's the Muslim-terrorist Order of Battle handbook. Play dead, but keep control of the money and the hinterland.


Anonymous said...

If only the CIA was still up for some wet work..

Dad29 said...


You may have noticed that the Phillipines have recently had some successes in pursuing AlQ characters.

It wasn't just the Phillipine Army on that mission.

Anonymous said...

Well, If I tell you about it, I'll have to kill you first.. ;-)

I still have the impression of Colonel Flagg, from the TV series M.A.S.H., whenever I think of CIA advisors in foreign countries.

Dad29 said...

That's a model still slavishly followed by TV.

Not even CLOSE. And it's no longer just the CIA. It's our SF groups.

Fidei Defensor said...

I know only about the Somali situation what i read in the Journal Sentinal but methinks the Ethopian army (8000 invading men?) is fighting a "total war" that is to say, word that the Ethiopians are comming has the Jihadists on the run, because they know the Ethiopians are going to bring the pain. Another intersting dynamic to this is that Ethiopia is the second oldest Christian country in the world (after Armenia). Anyway this just goes to show that a tough and determined Christian Army, even one that is small and armed with (by US standards) obselete weapons, and willing to do whatever it takes to get the job done, is the Jihadists worst nightmare. You raise a good point that the real fighting might start after the Ethiopians pull out but I have a feeling they'll break the back of the ICU before the do and things will end with a whimper not a second wind.