Thursday, July 24, 2014

The "Recovery" Misses Big

While the MSM and its master, the Administration, bleats happy-talk, reality intervenes.

New Home Sales in June plunged to 406k vs 504k in May... (remember that 504k print was the catalyst for 'weather' is over and the market to surge 10%) Now that has soaked in, consider this is equal lowest sales print since September 2013 (and Dec 2012) and the biggest miss since July 2013.The last 3 months of exuberance have all been revised significantly lower (most especially May's appartently make-believe number). What is even more troubling in the "survey" vs "reality" world is this collapse in sales when NAHB Sentiment surged to near cycle highs. For context, this is a 5-standard-deviation miss from economists' expectations,...

Musta been really horrible weather in June.  (Now it's called "climate disruption.")  Looks more like "economic disruption" to me and the only constant in the last 6 years has been Obozo and the Perfumed Princes in Congress.

Hmmmm?

1 comment:

steveegg said...

No worries about all the bad economic news - the annual revisions to 2011-1Q2014 GDP will allow 2Q "real" GDP "growth" to start with a 4, even though without a revision, we would be in a technical recession. In fact, I'll predict that nominal GDP will be below the 1st quarter's 3rd read of $17,016.0 billion, itself a drop from 4Q2013.