Saturday, December 08, 2012

Well, Yah!! Go Over the "Cliff"

As Barry 'splains, it's really not a big deal, except to the MFM and a number of bloodsucking politicians (principally SCOAMF and his cabal.)

...The term refers to the deal that Congress made in late 2011 to temporarily resolve the debt ceiling debate. The “sequestration,” as it is known, calls for three elements: tax increases, spending cuts and an increase to the payroll tax (FICA). The Washington Post’s Wonkblog has run the numbers and finds “$180 billion from income tax hikes, $120 billion in revenue from the payroll tax, $110 billion from the sequester’s automatic spending cuts and $160 billion from expiring tax breaks and other programs.”

That is a not-insignificant amount of money, but it is hardly the end of the world. To put this into context, it is a little less than the TARP bailout for Wall Street in 2009 and somewhat less than the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, President Obama’s stimulus package. An educated guess puts this at about $600 billion to $700 billion out of a $15 trillion U.S. economy. I’d ballpark that at about 4 percent of the GDP, or 0.50 percent of the forecasted GDP growth of 2 percent for calendar year 2013.

The term “fiscal cliff,” popularized by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, is really a misnomer. As several analysts have correctly observed, the effects of sequestration are not a Jan. 1, 2013, event. The impact of the spending cuts and tax hikes would be phased in over time. A fiscal slope is more accurate. Additionally, as students of history have learned, single-variable analysis for complex financial issues is invariably wrong. Because of the inherent complexity of economies and markets, we cannot adequately explain or predict their behavior by merely looking at just one variable.

Meh.  Taxes go up.  Shock!! 

Gummint expenditures go down?  Nope.  It's all smoke-and-mirrors; the "down" is from the ever-increasing 'baseline.'  So Gummint expenditures will NOT go down.



Anonymous said...

Darth Cheney famously said, "Deficits don't matter...Reagan proved that." All this wingnut posturing over debt/deficit reduction is decidedly unconvincing.

Yep, your taxes are going up, ole boy. Buy more vaseline.

Robert Goren said...

I see Keith Schmitz is drunk posting above.

Hey Keith, where's Shorewood's money you stole?

Anonymous said...

You should know, Robert, you were involved.