Monday, March 29, 2010

(D) Brand Sinking Hard and Fast

Hooboy.

To give you a sense of how startling it is for the GOP to actually lead on the generic ballot, revisit this Gallup piece from November comparing major electoral waves to the generic ballot polling that preceded them. The Democrats almost always lead; even in the red tide of 1994, the final generic ballot showed the parties even at 46/46. What does that mean for this year? Well, Gallup constructed the following statistical model to try to predict Democratic gains or losses.

(Click on the link to see the table if you like. If you don't like, then note that in the table, the (D) folk retain only ~185 seats in the House with that 44 poll-level.)

So unexpectedly low is 44 percent that they didn’t even bother to model it. Although the results are clear enough: If these numbers held on election day, you’d be looking at upwards of 60 seats flipping.

The Indies are fired up and pissed off.

1 comment:

Deekaman said...

Your vote will be stolen. Wait until you show up at the poll and find you already voted. Remember, you heard it here first.