Monday, January 04, 2010

Atmospheric CO2: No Increase, Sorry

Umnnhhhh, well, aaaahhh, sorta maybe, it was the "models," you see...

Most of the carbon dioxide emitted by human activity does not remain in the atmosphere, but is instead absorbed by the oceans and terrestrial ecosystems. In fact, only about 45 percent of emittedcarbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere.

However, some studies have suggested that the ability of oceans and plants to absorb carbon dioxide recently may have begun to decline and that the airborne fraction of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions is therefore beginning to increase.

Many climate models also assume that the airborne fraction will increase.

The key word is "assume."

From the research abstract:

Several recent studies have highlighted the possibility that the oceans and terrestrial ecosystems have started loosing part of their ability to sequester a large proportion of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions. This is an important claim, because so far only about 40% of those emissions have stayed in the atmosphere, which has prevented additional climate change. This study re-examines the available atmospheric CO2 and emissions data including their uncertainties. It is shown that with those uncertainties, the trend in the airborne fraction since 1850 has been 0.7 ± 1.4% per decade, i.e. close to and not significantly different from zero. The analysis further shows that the statistical model of a constant airborne fraction agrees best with the available data if emissions from land use change are scaled down to 82% or less of their original estimates. Despite the predictions of coupled climate-carbon cycle models, no trend in the airborne fraction can be found.

Bolded by Confederate Yankee.

"Despite the predictions....." "....scaled down from their original estimates..."

Well. Time to go to the "or something" meme, AlGore.

1 comment:

TerryN said...

So the argument is over, to coin a phrase. Al Gore was and is wrong and we now have many pieces of evidence to corroborate this. So what's their next step?