Tuesday, December 04, 2007

The Primaries: Longer Than We Thought. Where's "Mo"?

"Conventional wisdom" tells us that the nomination process will be ended in February, due to the primary-schedule jiggering of the various State parties.

Maybe. From "Just One Minute" blog:

I think an interesting thing is developing where small groups are splintering off towards individual candidates that best represent them, to the detriment of the "Newsweek cover" candidates.

...What seems to be more and more likely is that the entertainment that is the primary may last much longer than many fretted given the early primaries, and that who ever the eventual nominees are (save a weird Obama-Huckabee which would result in the absolute destruction of the GOP), the kooky shape-shifting oddity that this cycle has become will persist.

This brings me to Fred!! Thompson.

The ridiculously early start of both Giuliani and Romney (and McCain) was meant as a 'pre-emptive' strike--complicated only by the fact that all three of them started ridiculously early. But all three are seriously flawed candidates.

Rudee!!! is a prototypical East Coast Rockefeller Republican. Romney is not only a liberal Repbulican, but a "back-and-forthright candidate." McCain has managed to alienate almost everyone--and the S&L scandal problem has yet to be brought up. (Yah, hey, he was part of that mess back in the late 1980's.)

Then there's a very serious and very Conservative West Coast Pubbie (Hunter), who, while having zero traction east of the Rockies, has a significant following in the Southwest, including California. And there's the Preacher, another Big-Gummint Pubbie, from Arkansas, and of course, the Republican version of Kucinich--Ron Paul.

Fred Thompson saw the field and blanched. None of them are serious students of the Constitution (save Paul, and he has other, really significant problems;) the only Conservative of the bunch has a very limited base of support.

Thompson also has ideas--Social Security and income-tax reforms, immigration controls, and a decidedly Federalist take on Gummint (less, please.)

Conventional "wisdom" says he started late, and conventional "wisdom" says he's not serious.

But they're wrong.

Anyone who follows politics or sports understands "Mo." "Mo" is your friend, if you know how to get it and control it. Getting "Mo" is an art-form mixed with science. If you don't know how to get "Mo" you're not a factor (see Tommy Thompson.) If you don't know how to KEEP "Mo," you're a goner (see the Hildebeeste's current predicament.)

And if you know how to use "Mo," you sure as Hell don't peak early (see Howard Dean.)

Thompson's playing "Mo" exactly right. This primary season will last past February--it may even include Wisconsin in a significant role--and having "Mo" means that you peak when the votes actually count. Thompson thinks that the right "Mo" timing will be late January through March of '08.

The fat lady ain't sung yet, and I don't think she's even in the house, folks.

UPDATE: Similar ruminations, differing conclusions, at RedState.

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