Wednesday, April 04, 2007

US State Department Leaves Somalia Twisting in the Wind

Continuing the State Department's brilliant run of abandoning allies to insurgents, now comes Somalia:

The military intelligence source said that time is not on the TFG's [the Somali Government's] side. The TFG is unable to pay gunmen to fight for it, and likewise cannot afford normal government services. I warned in January that the TFG would have great trouble winning the peace in Somalia without U.S. aid, yet the State Department has continued to block funding despite the Pentagon's desire to provide large cash outlays.

This creates a terrible situation for the TFG. While the ICU [the Islamic insurgency] has an energized base of support, the TFG's position is dependent on the willingness of Ethiopia and Uganda to support it. Ethiopian troops are still in the country in limited numbers, but as casualties mount their presence will become a significant political issue in Ethiopia. The military intelligence source reports that there are many parallels to Iraq, where the initial military campaign was fairly successful but the insurgency gained steam thereafter. However, he doesn't think the Somalia campaign will last as long as Iraq: the fighting will likely be over faster, and not with a happy ending. He expects a resort to the situation in Somalia prior to the Ethiopian invasion, where the ICU controlled the entire country. He doesn't see the political will for another U.S. offensive there.

It is true that the US does not have the political will to save Somalia from the Islamic horde. Too bad the US doesn't even have a State Department which recognizes the situation for what it is.

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