Not only is the dog chasing its tail, the damn dog doesn't eat well, either. So says Tonelson:
...what
Hadas and all the rest continue to miss is how the world trade system,
national trade policies, and the trade flows they have fostered have
actively fostered in deficit countries like the United States a neglect
of productive activities like manufacturing (which is so heavily
traded).
Specifically,
as Washington in the 1990s and 2000s signed more and more trade
agreements structured to encourage multinational companies from all over
the world to supply U.S. consumers from locations in super low-cost and
virtually unregulated developing countries like China and Mexico,
American leaders and other elites (e.g., in the media) naturally sought
to rationalize their decisions by spreading the message that sectors of
the economy like manufacturing (and the income loss produced by the
accelerated offshoring that rippled throughout so much of the Main
Street economy) could be neglected with impunity. And the administration
of George W. Bush (along with Congress of course) and the Federal
Reserve chaired by Alan Greenspan underwrote America’s spendthrift ways
with big budget deficits and ultra-low interest rates, respectively.
Even
worse, these destructive trends fed on themselves. The more offshoring
seemed to pay off, and the more domestic manufacturing operations looked
like losing — or at least anachronistic — propositions, the less interested financiers became in investing in them.
So the amount of productive activity on which to use incoming capital
to start with began shriveling. And the less productive activity
available to sustain Main Street living standards responsibly (i.e.,
mainly through earnings), the greater the political establishment needed
to prop up those living standards by providing more easy money — at
least if it wanted to stay in power while maintaining the offshoring
status quo.
The remedy, according to Hadas, is MO' REGULATION!!
...“Regulation
can do more than strengthen bank capital ratios. It can reform the
system, so trade surplus funds are not directed to economically
counterproductive uses. That will be tough, both politically and
practically. But it should be easier – and will be far more helpful – to
solidify finance than to try to change the national characters of
Germany or Korea.”...(quoted by Tonelson)
The counter?
But
this requirement needs to be accompanied by (at the very least) strong
measures to keep out foreign-made goods that benefit from predatory
trade practices like dumping, subsidization, and intellectual property
theft. Otherwise, foreign competitors will be able to keep undercutting
their domestic American competition in the U.S. market, and these new
productive investments will fail....
And here's where Trump-ism shows up!
...this
is in fact where recognition is needed that the trade problem created
by American policy concerns not simply inducements to offshore, but the
coddling of protectionism in high income countries like Japan and
Germany....
Exactly what The Donald has been saying. We shall see, eh?
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