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Saturday, November 07, 2026
For Moron With Bad AI "Skillz"
Some twit claimed that PMI variances are significant from month to month, therefore Trumponomics was sketchy.
Here's a graf which is NOT monthly, but which demonstrates that m-t-m variances are not significant at all.
The premise that month-to-month Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) variances are "not significant at all" is incorrect, and the provided chart actually demonstrates the opposite.
Contrary to the claim, the chart in question is a monthly series plot. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is surveyed and published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Every single purple node (dot) connected on the line represents an individual monthly reading.
A detailed evaluation of the chart and the economic arguments shows why this interpretation fails:
1. The Chart Displays Monthly Data The chart covers 25 years (2000 to early 2025).
Across this 300-month timeframe, there are ~300 connected data points.
The individual dots depict month-to-month changes directly.
2. Month-to-Month Variance is High and Meaningful Looking closely at the monthly points on the graph: Short-term Volatility / Noise: The line frequently jaggedly jumps up or down by 2 to 4+ points between consecutive months (e.g., around 2011–2015 and 2023–2024). A single month's reading regularly shifts direction before returning to a broader trend line.
Extreme Single-Month Swings: During macro shocks (such as early 2008 or April 2020), the index plunged precipitously from one month to the next.
Threshold Sensitivity: Because 50.0 is the exact boundary dividing manufacturing expansion (>50) from contraction (<50), month-to-month variance of even 1–2 points frequently flips the indicator between positive and negative signals.
3. Evaluating Economic Claims vs. PMI Volatility Economic Noise vs. Trend: Economists generally treat single-month PMI figures as noisy indicators because survey-based sentiment often fluctuates due to seasonal adjustments, transient supply disruptions, or immediate news events. Multi-month moving averages (3-month or 6-month trends) are required to evaluate economic policies accurately.
Judging economic performance—under Trump or any other administration—based on isolated, single-month PMI movements leads to misleading conclusions due to monthly statistical noise. However, claiming that month-to-month PMI variance does not exist or is negligible is statistically false.
You ought to try reading the source, instead of playing meaningless semantic gains.
ISM/PMI: The U.S. manufacturing sector expanded in October for the 10th straight month following a 10-month period of contraction, registering 55.5 percent, an increase of 1 percent- age point compared to September. All five subindexes that directly factor into the Manu- facturing PMI® — New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Invento- ries — were in expansion territory, one more than in September
Ten straight months of expansion after 10 months of losing--a reault of Cabbage-Brain.
You’re proving my point. The premise that month-to-month variances are insignificant falls apart when looking at how economic trends actually form. Macroeconomic inflection points—such as moving from a prolonged slump into a sustained recovery—are entirely built out of, and signaled by, cumulative month-to-month variances.
The premise that month-to-month Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) variances are "not significant at all" is incorrect, and the provided chart actually demonstrates the opposite.
ReplyDeleteContrary to the claim, the chart in question is a monthly series plot. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is surveyed and published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Every single purple node (dot) connected on the line represents an individual monthly reading.
A detailed evaluation of the chart and the economic arguments shows why this interpretation fails:
1. The Chart Displays Monthly Data
The chart covers 25 years (2000 to early 2025).
Across this 300-month timeframe, there are ~300 connected data points.
The individual dots depict month-to-month changes directly.
2. Month-to-Month Variance is High and Meaningful
Looking closely at the monthly points on the graph:
Short-term Volatility / Noise: The line frequently jaggedly jumps up or down by 2 to 4+ points between consecutive months (e.g., around 2011–2015 and 2023–2024). A single month's reading regularly shifts direction before returning to a broader trend line.
Extreme Single-Month Swings: During macro shocks (such as early 2008 or April 2020), the index plunged precipitously from one month to the next.
Threshold Sensitivity: Because 50.0 is the exact boundary dividing manufacturing expansion (>50) from contraction (<50), month-to-month variance of even 1–2 points frequently flips the indicator between positive and negative signals.
3. Evaluating Economic Claims vs. PMI Volatility
Economic Noise vs. Trend: Economists generally treat single-month PMI figures as noisy indicators because survey-based sentiment often fluctuates due to seasonal adjustments, transient supply disruptions, or immediate news events. Multi-month moving averages (3-month or 6-month trends) are required to evaluate economic policies accurately.
Judging economic performance—under Trump or any other administration—based on isolated, single-month PMI movements leads to misleading conclusions due to monthly statistical noise. However, claiming that month-to-month PMI variance does not exist or is negligible is statistically false.
You ought to try reading the source, instead of playing meaningless semantic gains.
ReplyDeleteISM/PMI: The U.S. manufacturing sector expanded in
October for the 10th straight month following
a 10-month period of contraction, registering
55.5 percent, an increase of 1 percent-
age point compared to September. All five
subindexes that directly factor into the Manu-
facturing PMI® — New Orders, Production,
Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Invento-
ries — were in expansion territory, one more
than in September
Ten straight months of expansion after 10 months of losing--a reault of Cabbage-Brain.
See: https://www.ismworld.org/globalassets/pub/research-and-surveys/rob/pmi/r4in202610pmi.pdf
Buh-Bye, wacko.
You’re proving my point. The premise that month-to-month variances are insignificant falls apart when looking at how economic trends actually form. Macroeconomic inflection points—such as moving from a prolonged slump into a sustained recovery—are entirely built out of, and signaled by, cumulative month-to-month variances.
Delete