Tuesday, October 20, 2020

"Reliable" Polls? Probably Not

We are reminded that "the polls" are probably bullshit, no matter the wailing and snorting from a young and inexperienced RadioMouth nor the whining and stomping from an elderly grump.

...Flagging “clear warning signs” for Biden, one prominent strategist circulated a memo among Democrats earlier this month citing increasing registration of white, noncollege educated voters — President Donald Trump’s base demographic — in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. There is no precedent for Trump overcoming such a large polling deficit this close to the election, the strategist wrote. “And yet … ”...--RedState quoting Siders/Politico

How about the coming election?  Glad you asked!!

...What if the trickle of white men who voted for the first time in years in Wisconsin in 2016, despite widespread predictions that Trump’s candidacy was doomed, is followed in 2020 by a wave of previously nonvoting white males who conclude that Trump’s brand of tribal aggression is at last something worth voting for?

The universe of nonvoters is vast. Nationwide, 4 in 10 of those eligible did not vote in 2016. According to Brookings Institution demographer William Frey, more than 21 million nonvoters in 2016 were non-college-educated white men, Trump’s base. In Wisconsin … 459,000 non-college-educated white men didn’t vote in 2016. Trump won non-college-educated white men nationwide by an astounding 50 points. A modest rise in their turnout in key states in 2020 could swamp the Democratic nominee.....

Think that the Marquette Poll found all those non-voting white males in Wisconsin and polled them?  How about enough to make their polls valid?  Hmmmmm??

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