Another credentialed epidemiologist weighs in and he has a lot to say about this damn thing. Inter alia, since we "social distanced" our way to a flatter curve, we also "social distanced" our way to a far LONGER curve.
He likes 'herd immunity.' And he's AN EXPERT!!--but as he points out, he is NOT on a Government payroll.
HT:: Ticker
Herd immunity without a vaccine is by definition not a preventative measure.
ReplyDeleteIf the risks of COVID-19 were not so high, it would technically be possible to bring about herd immunity by allowing the disease to run rampant through a population. However, evidence shows that scenario would lead to high rates of hospitalization and need for critical care, straining health service capacity past the breaking point.
Herd immunity can only be reached when a precise proportion of a community becomes resistant to an infectious disease, To have herd immunity, each infected person must, on average, infect less than one person (though clearly, it’s not possible to infect half a person; if some infected people pass on the infection and others don’t, the average transmission rate will be less than one.) Once the transmission rate drops below one, a community has herd immunity.
Herd immunity also isn’t something that can work for any disease. It doesn’t matter how many people are vaccinated against tetanus, for example: If someone who isn’t vaccinated steps on a rusty nail, they can still get infected, because tetanus lives in reservoirs outside of the human body. An infection must be transmitted between people for herd immunity to have a protective effect.
I'll assume you saw the entire video and are qualified to critique his entire line of thought.
ReplyDeleteWe have a 1-in-500 chance of getting ChinaFlu, and IF we get it, a 1-in-100 chance of dying as a result.
That's not "high risk," sorry.
Covid-19, not ChinaFlu. And the risk is that low because of the measures we put in place.
ReplyDeleteI see you didn't critique any part of my statement, which was wise on your part.
Well, it's Kung Flu, priss-puss. Or Chinese Lung-AIDS.
ReplyDeleteSince The Expert Fauci doesn't want herd immunity--even WITH a vaccine--(but since herd immunity works pretty well with Flu-A/-B)--we can't even bring it up, can we?
You ramble into incoherent yapping about tetanus, which has nothing to do with viruses, but that's OK. Keep up the PC; it's your strong suit.
It has nothing to do with PC, just proper naming.
ReplyDeleteI notice you anytime a person has a relevant point, you automatically label it as "incoherent" or "yapping" or some other nonsense. Code for you are unable muster up a cogent rebuttal. Just admit it is above your pay grade and move on.
Fauci--If people are infected, I don't suppose it would rise to the level of herd community protection. [A]t the community level there would not have been enough infections to really have enough umbrella of herd immunity.
When models showed that UK hospital system would not be able to address all the serious cases, the government walked the plan back. Herd immunity works only at the local level, with primarily the general population there on board with desiring to be infected and then develop immunity.
Feel free to volunteer.