The State of Illinois taxpayers will be the first--but not only--to get hit by fallout.
Illinois’s largest public pension agrees with Bill Gross’s admonishment that it’s time to face up to the reality of lower returns
and reduce assumptions about what funds can make off stocks and bonds.
Fund
managers that have been counting on returns of 7 percent to 8 percent
may need to adjust that to around 4 percent, Gross, ... said during an Aug. 5
interview on Bloomberg TV....
What does that mean to the taxpayer-type?
...We conservatively assume that public pensions are currently $2.0
trillion underfunded ($4.5 trillion of assets for $6.5 trillion of
liabilities) even though we've seen estimates that suggest $3.5 trillion
or more might be more appropriate. We then adjusted the return on
asset assumption down from the 7.5% used by most pensions to the 4.0%
suggested by Mr. Gross and found that true public pension underfunding
could be closer to $5.5 trillion, or over 2.5x more than current
estimates. ...
So?
....According to a Monday memo from a top [Illinois Governor] Rauner aide, the Teachers'
Retirement System (TRS) board could (or rather, should) decide at its
meeting this week to lower the assumed investment return rate, warning
that this move "would automatically boost Illinois' annual pension
payment."
"If the (TRS) board were to approve a lower assumed rate of
return taxpayers will be automatically and immediately on the hook for
potentially hundreds of millions of dollars in higher taxes or reduced
services," Michael Mahoney, Rauner's senior advisor for revenue and pensions, wrote to the governor’s chief of staff, Richard Goldberg....
Yes. Taxpayers will make up the difference with payable-right-now CASH.
Get your Vaseline ready; there are lots of Wisconsin pension plans with the same little problem.
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