ObozoNomics: The Credit Crunch

Reliable source is the Credit Managers' Index.

By far the most disturbing is the rejection of credit applications as this has fallen from an already weak 48.1 to 42.9. This is credit crunch territory—unseen since the very start of the recession. Suddenly companies are having a very hard time getting credit.

A while back, we noticed that the price of copper was dropping.  That's "The Old Farts' Leading Economic Indicator" for you young'uns who think that APPL stock is some sort of tin god.

It ain't.

Then we noticed a significant fall-off in large-ticket consumer purchases--like automobiles.  Trucks are holding their own; but cars?  Falling sales through 2014 and so far through 2015.  (Local data, not Big Three propaganda.)

Then there's the consumer credit side--which is also dropping, except for college loans and (to a much smaller extent) auto loans. (No, that's not a contradiction; the average car transaction is now around $31K, so borrowed dollars mount up very quickly even with a smaller 'units sold' number.)

And, of course, there are the horrific family-income and family-assets numbers coupled with the decrease in working Americans and the concomitant increase in 'shadow unemployment.'

Keep the weather eye peeled.