Is The Election Over Already?

Well....it's quite a ways away, right?  Anything can happen, right?

Right.

But..........

...while most seem to discount the midterms as predictive -- and most seem to almost completely ignore 2010 as if it's an obvious aberration -- in fact, at least over the past three cycles, the midterms have been highly predictive. They've predicted the presidential vote to within 1%.

 

Given that circumstances from 2010 have not improved -- indeed, it seems likely Obama's position has deteriorated -- why would we expect 2012 to break this pattern?

No reason I can think of.