Thursday, March 05, 2009

Some Housing Will NEVER Recover

Housing was a serious bubble, as most people have figured out (particularly banks, Fan/Fred, and such idiots as Lehmann, BearStearns).

It's finally contracting--it has a ways to go yet--but SOME housing will never recover.

Arthur C. Nelson, director of the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech, has looked carefully at trends in American demographics, construction, house prices, and consumer preferences. In 2006, using recent consumer research, housing supply data, and population growth rates, he modeled future demand for various types of housing. The results were bracing: Nelson forecasts a likely surplus of 22 million large-lot homes (houses built on a sixth of an acre or more) by 2025—that’s roughly 40 percent of the large-lot homes in existence today

Contraception, folks.

No kids, no use for 'large-lot homes.' For that matter, not much use for 4 b/r 2.5ba homes, either.

HT: Regular Guy

1 comment:

  1. You miss the land that will be required to grow our own food once the Won removes all wealth and distorts economic rewards to the point that "food" will only be grown to burn as fuel!

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